Complete Business Statistics and Law Discussion

Spearate each Disc

Conditional Probability

Discussion 2 Instructor Comments:

The Monty Hall Problem is interesting, because the results are counterintuitive. Watch the video and then try to figure out the math. Don’t go to a site that gives you the finished formula—that’s just not interesting. Try to do it yourself. Don’t worry about grades here—I give full credit if your post a good effort discussion and two replies during the discussion period.

In §4.4 we are introduced to the concept of conditional probability. The notation P(A | B) denotes the probability of event A occurring given that we know event B has occurred.

Now consider the Monty Hall Problem introduced in the following video:

  • After watching this video, we know that if we are given the option to switch doors that, probabilistically speaking, it is in our best interest to switch.
  • Explain why this is the case using your knowledge of conditional probability.